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Base’s social bet left it trailing in prediction markets and perps: Pollak

cointelegraph.com · Jul 16, 2026 at 01:14

Base’s social bet left it trailing in prediction markets and perps: Pollak
cointelegraph.com Jul 16, 2026

Base creator Jesse Pollak is stepping back from leadership of the Base App after admitting he was “definitively wrong” to bet on social experiences driving crypto adoption.

Base creator Jesse Pollak says he is stepping back from leading the Base App after admitting he made a “wrong bet” on social, leaving the chain to fall behind on prediction markets and perpetual futures. 

In a post to X on Wednesday, Pollak said he had bet that creator, content and messaging apps would drive adoption, but instead the market “disintegrated completely.” 

“We realized how our focus on social had meant that base had fallen behind in key areas that were now increasingly critical — we had perps (shoutout avantis!) and prediction markets (shoutout limitless!), but both were well behind scaled competitors.”

Dune Analytics data shows Base-native prediction market Limitless accounted for just 0.5% of total monthly notional volume across prediction markets in July. Perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) Avantis ranked 18th by reported 30-day notional trading volume, according to DefiLlama.

Pollak’s comments give further insight into the reversal of Base’s growth strategy earlier this year. While Base initially focused on social products such as Farcaster, Zora and miniapps to bring crypto to “a billion people,” Pollak said financial applications are the way forward for the network, with a focus on trading, payments and AI agents. 

Limitless Exchange’s monthly notional volume is only a fraction of its larger competitors. Source: Dune Analytics

Pollak added he will be returning leadership of the Base App to Coinbase, under Jordan Fish, known on X as “Cobie,” while he focuses on the Base blockchain. 

Pollak’s post came just days after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong acknowledged content coins “didn’t work,” prompting the company to pivot earlier this year. 

“We messed up, time to turn the page,” Armstrong said on Monday. 

In February, Base sunset its Creator Rewards program and Farcaster-powered social feed as part of a strategic shift to tradable assets. 

Related: Moonbeam to pivot from Polkadot to Base, unveils AI agent framework

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