Bitcoin realized losses appeared to be copying a reversal structure that marked previous bear-market bottoms, with $69,000 a new BTC price battleground.
Bitcoin (BTC) “cycle peak buyers” could already be pointing the way to the next bear-market bottom.
In an X post on Friday, Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at onchain analytics platform Glassnode, showed a classic bottom signal potentially repeating.
The latest in a series of such signals, the latest puts buyers who bought BTC in the latter part of the bull market in focus.
“One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market’s end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders,” Cryptovizart wrote.
Here, coins moving onchain at a loss last did so between July 2024 and July 2025. During that time, BTC/USD increased from around $62,800 to $107,000, placing the majority of investors underwater on their allocation.
“As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization,” the post continues.
Bitcoin realized losses for 1-2 year hodlers (30-day moving average). Source: Cryptovizart/X
An accompanying chart shows a spike in realized losses on a 30-day rolling basis, with the tally recently passing $75 million before beginning a reversal. For Cryptovizart, that feature is key.
“When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market,” they added.
Hodler realized losses are not the only onchain metric on the radar when it comes to timing the next macro BTC price floor.
Related: Bitcoin gets new $80K August target: Watch these BTC price levels next
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