The Fisher Transform indicator produced a rare crossover for only the fourth time in Bitcoin’s history.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing strong signs that its latest long-term floor is already in, according to a classic trading indicator.
In an X thread on Friday, analyst Willy Woo flagged key readings from the Fisher Transform indicator, a price trend analysis tool created in 2002.
The indicator smooths an asset’s price action to create a readable trend-strength chart. Market prices tend to spend more time around extreme values than ordinary statistical data. The Fisher transform corrects this by applying a log-based transform.
The indicator is formed of two trend lines, the Fisher line and the trigger line, that fluctuate on a scale with zero at its center. The trigger line is derived from the Fisher line, plotted with a delay of one period.
Woo shows that for Bitcoin, a sharp upward reversal in Fisher, where its two trend lines cross over one another, has corresponded to bear-market bottoms when viewed on monthly time frames.
“BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record,” he commented.
BTC/USD one-month chart with Fisher Transform data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The cross in question occurred during July at -2.26, and if it continues to play out, history suggests that BTC/USD will embark on a new macro uptrend. Woo, however, notes that price could still consolidate and continue lower, referencing a corresponding phenomenon during bull markets where Fisher delivered a bearish crossover, only to offer a fresh bullish one later.
This, he argues, is due to the presence of speculative traders during long-term BTC price uptrends, who influence market momentum because they are sensitive to short-term price moves. By contrast, during bear-market bottom phases, such traders are mostly absent, boosting the reliability of Fisher bottom signals.
“When price falls to a point where investors find value, buy-pressure fires back up but we are devoid of speculators. Price reverses more cleanly without the choppy fake outs seen in tops. Hence bottoms are easier to define. This is seen in many signals, also seen in the Fisher Transform here,” he added.
The weekly chart shows another Fisher bull structure in process throughout 2026. Here, the indicator hit its swing low of -2.85 at the end of December last year, with BTC/USD still at around $90,000.
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