Bitcoin supply in loss hit 50% nearly 50 days ago, mimicking the countdown to BTC price bear-market bottoms.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been counting down to its next bottom for nearly two months, a classic onchain metric suggests.
In its H1 2026 Round-Up report, crypto research company K33 Research flagged more than 50% of the BTC supply now being held at a loss.
A typical bear-market feature, supply in loss has become a yardstick for progress toward macro bottoms for BTC/USD.
K33 data shows that once supply in loss passes the 50% mark, the bottom has come no more than 101 days later. Bear markets have provided various time frames, with the shortest bottom “window” lasting just 13 days in 2022.
The 2018 bear market required 23 days to reach its floor, while in 2014, Bitcoin continued to decline for 101 days after the 50% supply-in-loss mark was hit.
In 2026, supply in loss repeated standard bear-market behavior, crossing 50% on June 5. Since then, 42 days have elapsed, making this year’s bottom window Bitcoin’s second-longest ever.
BTC supply in loss and days until bear-market bottom (screenshot). Source: K33 Research
In accompanying commentary, K33 observed that returns over the year following the phenomenon “tend to be very solid.”
Earlier this month, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, estimated that supply in loss was around two months away from levels that correspond to bear-market bottoms.
CryptoQuant data puts supply in loss at 46% as of July 17.
Continuing, CryptoQuant eyed what it described as “rare” readings from Bitcoin investor cost-basis models.
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