Bitcoin HODL waves data revealed an unusually muted reaction to Bitcoin’s drop below $58,000, raising questions over its status as a bear-market floor.
Bitcoin (BTC) buyers avoided “buying the dip” as BTC price fell to $57,800 in July, analysis reports.
Data from Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric shows an unusually muted reaction to the most recent macro lows.
HODL Waves group the BTC supply by how long coins have remained dormant in their wallets, plotting each group over time to create the chart’s signature wave-like pattern. The newest supply, coins dormant between one and seven days, offers insight into investor buying activity following key BTC price events.
On July 1, BTC/USD briefly dropped below $58,000, reaching its lowest levels since September 2024. On that day, the portion of the supply dormant between one and seven days stood at 1.97%, per data from Look Into Bitcoin. The figure increased only marginally in the days after, reaching a mere 2.35% on July 5.
Bitcoin HODL Waves data. Source: Look Into Bitcoin
For onchain analyst Willy Woo, this lack of onchain movement stands out among long-term BTC price lows. Previously, he noted, buyers rushed to buy new lows — a knee-jerk reaction absent in July.
“Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale,” he wrote in a post on X this week, describing the event as an “anomaly.”
Woo acknowledged that the interpretation was not infallible, with institutional investment vehicles possibly impacting the HODL Waves data.
“I haven’t found any other thesis to explain the anomaly apart from slow steady buying by all investors involved this implies it’s a handful of buyers because if it was many they tend to act like a herd around price action and create spikes in the buying pattern,” he added.
The findings add to the debate around whether July marked Bitcoin’s latest bear-market bottom.
Related: Bitcoin bear market ‘over’ as price metric copies 2023 recovery: CryptoQuant CEO
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