Nearly 50,000 BTC shifted to exchanges at a loss while short-term Bitcoin holders' stress level reached 2-year highs. Is BTC headed toward new lows?
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing fresh signs of short-term holder capitulation after roughly 50,000 BTC moved to exchanges at a loss over the past day. At the same time, the market capitalization of short-term holders fell to $237.7 billion, its lowest level since October 2024.
The rise in loss-driven selling comes as tighter monetary conditions and weakening institutional demand continue to weigh on Bitcoin, as analysts underlined a “deeply unfavorable” environment for BTC.
CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said Bitcoin's short-term holder (STH) market capitalization fell to $237.7 billion on June 26, its lowest level since Oct. 2, 2024, when it stood near $239.7 billion.
BTC STH realized market cap. Source: CryptoQuant
The metric tracks the market value of coins held by investors who bought Bitcoin within the past 155 days. The latest reading shows the cohort's market value is below its realized value, indicating many recent buyers are holding more unrealized losses.
A similar decline appeared during the October 2024 correction, which later aligned with an important Bitcoin bottom. The latest reading serves as a measure of stress rather than confirmation of a market low.
Exchange activity adds another layer to the picture. Around 50,000 BTC from short-term holders moved to exchanges at a loss during the past 24 hours, marking the largest loss-to-exchange flow since June 4. Binance alone received roughly 9,500 BTC under similar conditions, its highest reading since June 3.
This indicates that near-term sell-side pressure has increased as newer investors react to lower prices.
BTC short-term holder profit/loss to exchanges in 24-hours. Source: CryptoQuant
However, long-term holders' activity provided a positive development. Bitcoin inflows into accumulation addresses climbed to a record 181,000 BTC on Thursday, almost doubling the previous high of 94,700 BTC recorded in February 2022. These wallets typically receive coins with little spending history, suggesting the surge signals that long-term investors are absorbing supply while short-term holders exit positions.
BTC inflows to accumulation addresses. Source: CryptoQuant
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