Bitcoin price gains approached 10% for the first two weeks of the month, but analysis warned of the bear market returning from August onward.
Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing its best month of July since 2022, but analysis warns that the result could be firmly bearish.
Data from CoinGlass shows that at 9.5%, BTC/USD is setting a four-year record for July gains.
Bitcoin’s last bear-market year, in 2022, saw price end July nearly 17% higher after significant 38% losses the month prior. What happened in August, however, showed that calls for bullish continuation at the time were premature. BTC/USD fell by around 14%, followed by a further 3% drop in September.
This time, market participants are thus predictably cautious over short-term price strength.
“$BTC Has been pretty much in line with its average July performance so far. But of course it is still early,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on the CoinGlass numbers in an X post on Saturday.
Daan Crypto Trades noted that even taking bull markets into account, Q3 is Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, with average gains of just 6%.
“This has to do a lot with slow markets, low liquidity and volumes during the Summer time,” he added.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Also concerned about seasonality is trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who notes that BTC price performance in 2026 is matching its previous bear markets closely.
“If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July,” he told X followers this week.
BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
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