Bitcoin’s move above its 50-week moving average has historically marked the end of bear markets, but analysts say one weekly close isn’t enough to confirm a new bull run.
Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in more than 10 months, a development some analysts said could signal the end of Bitcoin’s bear market.
Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase on Sunday, above its 50-week moving average of $78,788, according to TradingView. The last weekly close above the moving average was on Nov. 9, 2025.
In August, Galaxy Research’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn described the 50-week moving average as serving as a ceiling during bear markets.
“In four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitively ‘in,’” he said in a research note.
“Essentially, retaking the 50w MA has previously confirmed the end of a bear market,” Thorn added.
Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase, above its 50-week moving average (blue). Source: TradingView
The latest close is also Bitcoin’s highest weekly close in four months, according to data from TradingView.
On Tuesday, ahead of the weekly close, crypto research company Collective Shift founder Ben Simpson said Bitcoin closing above its 50-week moving average would be “the last thing I need to see before I call this a bull market.” He said Bitcoin gained between 700% and 900% after breaking above the level in 2017, 2020 and 2023.
Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that the latest close added weight to the case that Bitcoin’s recovery was underway.
“In previous cycles, reclaiming this level has tended to happen after the major low was established and longer-term momentum had started to recover.”
However, Lee said one weekly close was not enough to confirm that Bitcoin had reached its cycle bottom.
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