Bitcoin price forecasts diverge as US-Iran war tensions fueled an ongoing oil and bond-market surge, while July Fed rate-hike odds neared 40%.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $65,000 on Thursday as US stocks slid amid another round of escalation in Iran.
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting three-day lows of $64,799 on Bitstamp.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Risk assets felt the strain on the day as US President Donald Trump warned that he would blame Iran for recent Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabian commercial vessels.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that he was “very disappointed” in the Houthis, referencing attacks on US ships from 2025.
By the close of New York trading, the S&P 500 had fallen 1.2% and the Nasdaq had shed 2.2%, while oil prices rallied to their highest since early June, with Brent crude topping $100 a barrel.
CFDs on Brent crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Inflation expectations and interest rates are rising sharply again,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a response on X.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed an increasing chance of officials hiking by 0.25% — traditionally a headwind for crypto markets. Odds neared 40% on Thursday, while a week prior, they were closer to 12%.
Fed target-rate probability comparison for July FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
Kobeissi, meanwhile, noted 18-month highs in US 10-year bond yields in a sign of fresh economic strain.
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