Bitcoin BTC$82,001.05 could reclaim $100,000 before year-end as institutional adoption and demand for hard assets overcome near-term economic uncertainty, according to crypto asset manager Bitwise, offering a more bullish outlook than traders who expect inflation and elevated interest rates to constrain gains.
The forecasts highlight a divide over timing. Analysts see longer-term support from institutional investment, regulatory progress and concerns about government debt, but disagree on whether those forces can drive a breakout before the end of 2026.
Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, expects bitcoin to emerge from the coming weeks’ uncertainty at a higher valuation.
“We believe bitcoin ends the year higher, potentially above $100,000,” Rasmussen told CoinDesk.
He identified three longer-term drivers: institutional buying through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate purchases; demand for hard assets amid inflation, rising debt and currency debasement; and clearer regulation that reduces the perceived risk of owning crypto.
“In our view, these tailwinds significantly outweigh the potential headwinds,” he said.
Rasmussen nevertheless expects volatility around a possible late-October Federal Reserve rate increase and November’s U.S. midterm elections. A breakout would be difficult in that environment, he said, although the uncertainty could create an opportunity for investors to build positions.
Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at LO:TECH, a London-based crypto trading and market data firm, is more cautious. His base case is an $85,000–$95,000 trading range into year-end.
“Macro has gone against Bitcoin all year, with the Fed hiking in September and a December hike priced at roughly 75%,” McCarthy said. “This will continue to weigh on bitcoin.”
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September. Inflation figures released Oct. 14 complicated the outlook: consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month, while core prices increased 0.3%. Gasoline accounted for more than half of the headline increase.
McCarthy said a return above $100,000 would require expectations for a December hike to give way to a pause, supported by easing oil prices and inflation.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, sees a similar tension between persistent inflation and weakening employment. Cooling prices would give the Fed more room to respond to labor-market weakness; further inflation pressure could keep policy restrictive and weigh on bitcoin.
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