Analysis flagged a Bitcoin moving average derivative that last triggered at the end of the 2022 bear market as BTC price action returned to its reversal zone.
Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing a “textbook” bear-market bottom as speculators take profits on the trip toward $65,000.
In their latest analysis on X, the Bitcoin quant account known as Frank, named for the famous economist Frank A. Fetter, doubled down on conviction that the worst of the BTC price downtrend is over.
“This is a textbook bitcoin bottom; I mean every bottom signal has flashed or is flashing, it’ll be very obvious in hindsight,” one post stated.
An accompanying chart showed the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for BTC/USD, along with various quantiles.
The ninth quantile is of particular interest, having marked reversals at the pit of the 2022 bear market and March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Price is now back in that reversal zone.
BTC/USD chart with 200-week SMA data. Source: Frank/X
Turning to short-term holders (STHs) — wallets holding BTC for up to six months without selling — another encouraging sign emerges.
For Frank, positive readings from the cohort’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which measures the proportion of STH coins moving onchain in profit or loss, are conspicuous.
“A key bitcoin metric might be signaling that a market shift is underway. Sth-sopr just flipped green as short-term holders are realizing profits,” they wrote.
The findings add to a growing consensus among market participants that the 2026 bear market has little time left to run.
Related: $60.4K Becomes 'most important area': Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
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