Coinbase draws scrutiny after the CLARITY Act stalls, while the SEC moves ahead with tokenized stocks and crypto firms push deeper into payments.
The crypto industry spent much of the past two years preparing for regulatory clarity in Washington. This week, one of its biggest legislative priorities hit a major roadblock.
The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate on Tuesday, falling short of the 60 votes needed to bring the bill to the floor for debate. The setback significantly narrows the bill’s path this year, with the Senate calendar tightening ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Strategists say crypto exchanges such as Coinbase may have more at stake than most from the stalled legislation.
Elsewhere, Standard Chartered is betting big on Arbitrum, Bitmine is turning its Ether treasury into a source of staking revenue, and Phemex’s CEO says AI has been a “net negative” for crypto.
Saxo Bank strategist Ruben Dalfovo said Coinbase has more at stake in the CLARITY Act setback because its trading business is directly exposed to US market-structure rules.
In a Wednesday note following the bill’s failed procedural vote, Dalfovo said Coinbase is particularly exposed because new rules could determine registration requirements, tradable assets and who can participate on its platform. The setback could also affect other crypto-linked companies, though Dalfovo said their businesses are less directly tied to market-structure rules. Circle’s exposure is tied more closely to USDC adoption and reserve interest, while Strategy relies primarily on its Bitcoin holdings and access to financing.
The market reaction reflected those concerns. Coinbase, Circle and Strategy shares fell between 5% and 10% after the vote and continued lower the following day.
Standard Chartered sees Arbitrum outperforming Bitcoin and Ether through 2030, driven by traditional finance firms moving assets onchain and transforming the network’s economics.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, said Arbitrum receives 10% of net protocol revenue from companies building on it. Robinhood Chain, launched in July, has materially changed Arbitrum’s economics, with September revenue expected at $5 million, over five times the prior level. Kendrick projects ARB at $10 by 2030, a 70-fold increase from current prices around $0.14, which have gained 86% in the past month.
Standard Chartered’s thesis relies on tokenized assets reaching $39 billion and forecasts of $4 trillion by 2028. Arbitrum’s layer-2 infrastructure and revenue-sharing model position it as a beneficiary, but adoption pace remains uncertain.
Bitmine projects $334 million in annual staking revenue from its $15.8 billion crypto treasury, with over 5 million Ether now staked to generate recurring income even during volatile conditions.
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