Markets wobbled after mixed comments from President Trump on the Iran peace deal and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaling a new direction from the Federal Reserve.
The US stock market traded down on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran was not final. Investors fear that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not clear quickly, which adds further pressure on inflation. Is the stock market and Bitcoin (BTC) at risk?
The US and Iran are expected to formally sign an agreement on Friday, starting a 60-day negotiation period. On Wednesday, Trump said the deal should please the markets and that oil prices might fall. However, the US President threatened further bombings if Iran did not “behave.”
US 5-year Treasury yield vs. crude Brent oil, USD. Source: TradingView
Crude Brent oil fell to its lowest level in 100 days, but traders doubt fuel prices will continue to weigh on markets for long. Yields on US Treasuries remained at 4.16%, flat from two weeks prior. Investors are less confident in the US Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates soon, thereby demanding higher returns on government bonds.
US retail sales data released on Wednesday showed 6.9% growth from May 2025, but the rise likely reflects higher costs of goods such as fuel. In parallel, Wednesday marked the first Fed Committee meeting by Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision to hold interest rates steady was largely expected, but investors will try to discern Warsh’s views and personal credibility.
Nasdaq-100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index traded 2% below its all-time high, while Bitcoin has failed to hold above $80,000 since mid-May. Bitcoin traders’ skepticism partly stems from a lack of inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the absence of a Coinbase premium relative to international exchanges, signaling weak demand from institutional investors.
Coinbase Bitcoin USD vs. international USDT prices. Source: TradingView & Cointelegraph
Coinbase Bitcoin price in USD has traded at a discount versus international exchanges based in USDT for the past five weeks. Meanwhile, the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $2.1 billion in net outflows so far in June. The recent weakness in the Strategy preferred perpetual equity Stretch (STRC US) has further fueled the negative sentiment.
Related: Bitcoin tops $67K following US-Iran peace deal: Is it a bull trap?
Strategy preferred perpetual equity Stretch (STRC US). Source: TradingView
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