CryptoQuant warns on Strategy's dividend coverage as cash reserve falls 38%

Strategy's cash reserves are now enough to pay only 14 months of dividends from the previous seven-year level. CryptoQuant said the company should pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild its reserves.

After Strategy's dividend coverage fell to 14 months from seven years, CryptoQuant said the company led by Michael Saylor should pause Bitcoin purchases and focus on replenishing its cash reserve that's down 38% year-to-date.

Strategy's dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion, as the company issued substantial new STRC preferred stock, which carries an 11.5% yield.

“They should pause Bitcoin purchases, rebuild cash reserves, and adopt a systematic framework for purchase timing,” wrote the market data analytics provider's CEO Ki Young Ju in a Wednesday X post, adding that the biggest public Bitcoin treasury holder should also create a “disciplined selling framework” for the next bull market.

Strategy's cash reserve fell 38% after the company repurchased $1.5 billion of its 2029 senior notes at a discount, Cointelegraph reported on May 26. Those coffers have since recovered to $1.4 billion after it sold $335.5 million in MSTR shares, which added $300 million to its US dollar reserve on Monday, although it is near a record-low of 14 months' of funds available to pay dividends.

Strategy's income-generating preferred stock, STRC, fell to $82.50 last week, a record 17.5% below its $100 par value. CryptoQuant's report attributed it to the Bitcoin bear market correction and the “simultaneous depletion” of its cash reserve.

STRC is one of Strategy's main mechanisms to fund its Bitcoin accumulation. Trading below par limits Strategy's ability to raise funds through STRC sales. It may also force the company to increase its nominal dividend rate to attract buyers and protect STRC's price.

The company said it plans to “continue replenishing” its USD reserve to “support the credit quality of its Digital Credit securities,” according to a Monday X post. 

Cointelegraph's request for comment on Strategy's plans to replenish the cash reserve and whether this could help STRC's price recover was not immediately replied to by the company.

Strategy cash reserve and dividend coverage in months. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant said Strategy is not “obligated” to sell Bitcoin to maintain STRC’s price, as the company can also deploy other tools to defend the stock, such as raising the current 11.5% dividend yield or issuing MSTR stock to “signal its ability to continue paying dividends,” adding:

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings only provide a “limited emergency cushion,” as the company is sitting on about $10.6 billion in unrealized losses, meaning that a forced BTC sale at current rates would “crystallize large losses and destroy shareholder value,” CryptoQuant said.