Bitcoin onchain analysis eyed a “potential bottom” for BTC price action in early October as demand weathered external headwinds.
Bitcoin (BTC) can still preserve its traditionally strong October performance, as onchain data points to a local BTC price bottom forming.
New analysis published on crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant Monday show onchain conditions in a state of “cautious optimism.”
Bitcoin continues to weather mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, which include 24-year highs in US bond yields, rising oil prices and cooling capital inflows to exchange-traded products. These conditions have dampened optimism over Bitcoin delivering a strong performance in October.
“Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging,” CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote.
Since the start of October, conditions have changed to increasingly benefit crypto and risk assets. XWIN points to cooling expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve into 2027, boosting the odds of inflows improving. At the same time, markets expect more clarity over the US domestic political situation after the approaching Midterm Elections.
“Less political uncertainty after the vote could help investors reassess allocations,” XWIN continued.
Bitcoin exchange reserves, apparent demand and whale holdings give XWIN reasons to believe that October’s local low may have already occurred.
The BTC supply on exchanges has fallen from 2.726 million on Sept. 20 to 2.68 million as of Tuesday, a decrease of 1.7%, despite a modest increase over the past week.
Bitcoin exchange BTC reserves. Source: CryptoQuant
At the same time, the combined holdings owned by large-volume investors, or whales, remain above 3 million BTC. The cohort’s urge to reduce exposure has survived BTC/USD dropping from $87,000 on Oct. 2 to near $80,000 on Oct. 8.
Bitcoin whale holdings (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
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