The BTC/gold ratio peaked at around 40 in December 2024 before falling to a low of 12.2 in February. Since then, it has recovered to roughly 15.22 ounces.
Historical cycles suggest these drawdowns can be prolonged. Following the 2017 peak, the ratio took 396 days to reach its bottom, while the 2021 cycle lasted 579 days. The peak-to-trough decline was 427 days, placing it almost exactly between the previous two cycles.
At current levels, a BTC/gold ratio of 15.22 implies gold at $4,150/oz and bitcoin at approximately $63,300.
Bitcoin is down 8% in the second quarter and continues to languish just above $62,000. If it ends the month at current levels, it would mark a third consecutive quarterly decline, the longest losing streak since 2022, when bitcoin recorded four straight negative quarters.Bitcoin is currently 15% down in June, making it tied for its worst monthly performance since February.
U.K. government bond yields surged on Friday, with the 10-year gilt yield rising to 4.8%, up more than 1.2% on the day. The move reflects growing political uncertainty after Andy Burnham's special election victory strengthened speculation that Labour leadership could come under pressure, raising concerns about the country's fiscal outlook and increasing risk premiums across government debt markets.
After falling below $83 on Thursday, Strategy's (MSTR) STRC rebounded to around $88 by the end of the session. The sharp decline had sparked concern among investors, and on Friday morning Strategy (MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor appeared to address the volatility with a post on X:
"Markets are closed today. Volatility is never easy. Bitcoin keeps working. So do we. Thank you for your support."
The post marked the company's only public comment following the selloff.
The digital credit market suffered one of its sharpest selloffs in history on Thursday, pushing Strategy's STRC and Strive's SATA sharply lower before both rebounded. The drop resulted from forced selling by leveraged investors, not any weakness in underlying credit quality, according to Strive CEO Matt Cole. For more, see James Van Straten's report.
Bitcoin continues to sell off alongside precious metals, while Fed funds futures continue to price in 50 basis points of rate hikes over the next six months. By January 2027, markets are expecting the federal funds rate to reach 4.00% to 4.25%.
Bitcoin has fallen below $63,000, down 1% over the past 24 hours. Gold has slipped to around $4,100 per ounce, declining 1.3% over the same period, while silver is holding above $65 per ounce, down 1% on the day.
The number of daily confirmed transactions on the smart contract blockchain surpassed 14.3 million early this week, hitting a record high, according to data source TronScan.
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