Wintermute said bitcoin's $59,000 price level has become a key threshold for traders as crypto markets face mounting pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty.
The firm said bitcoin, trading around $62,400, and ether, near $1,650, have drifted toward the lower end of their recent ranges following last week's hawkish Federal Reserve meeting and shifting headlines surrounding tensions in the Middle East.
While crypto assets are moving lower alongside broader risk assets, correlations among major cryptocurrencies are rising as market liquidity dries up heading into the summer. The absence of fresh inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds has left digital asset markets more exposed to macroeconomic headlines and potential weakness in equities, the firm said.
With stocks still appearing relatively stretched after recent gains, Wintermute warned that a summer pullback in traditional markets could weigh further on crypto prices.
Traders are now watching several catalysts that could drive market direction, including developments around a potential Middle East peace agreement, Thursday's U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report and the expiration of second-quarter options contracts later this month.
Bitcoin has once again found support near its 200-week simple moving average, a level that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms, according to Charles Schwab director of crypto research Jim Ferraioli.
Ferraioli noted that bitcoin is also trading near the cost of production for efficient miners, which he estimates is in the low $60,000 range. Production costs are often watched by market participants because sustained prices below those levels can pressure mining operations and reduce network activity.
While bitcoin briefly posted a new intraday low last week, price levels established in early February continue to act as support, he said.
Network data may also offer clues about market conditions. Mining difficulty, a measure of how hard it is to validate blocks on the Bitcoin network, has fallen roughly 20% from levels reached last year and has returned to where it stood in early February.
Bitcoin's next mining difficulty adjustment is scheduled for June 27. Current estimates suggest an increase, which Ferraioli said has historically helped confirm market bottoms after sharp selloffs because it can signal that miners are bringing equipment back online after temporary shutdowns.
Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto (NAKA) announced that all operations at its healthcare clinics ended last week.
"The clinic closure reflects the Company’s full transition to a Bitcoin operating company focused on media & information services, asset management & financial services, and consulting & advisory services, designed to generate recurring revenue and support continued growth across the verticals," said Nakamto in a press release.
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