The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is trading lower by 2.6 basis points at 5.191% shortly after the close of U.S. stocks.
In the wake of the hot inflation report this morning, it had risen as high as 5.36%.
How rare is that sort of turnaround? According to Bespoke, it’s the first time since December 2022 that the 10-year yield rose 10 or more basis points and then fell 10 or more basis points from that intraday high to finish lower on the day.
What’s it mean? No one knows for sure, but in the old commodity pits, these sorts of “outside days” often signaled key trend reversals. If, in fact, the long run higher in interest rates has run its course, risk assets — crypto obviously included — could stand to benefit.
This morning’s stronger-than-forecast CPI report was “discouraging,” said Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed.
“We need to get more data,” before moving to again hike rates, Goolsbee told Yahoo Finance.
It’s important to focus on the trend of inflation, he said, rather than one report.
The Nasdaq has extended its decline to more than 2%, a bit more than 90 minutes before the close of trading.
Apart from Apple, which is showing a small gain, the Mag 7 names are lower across the board, led by Nvidia’s and Meta’s 3.3% declines. Tesla is off 2.7%, and Amazon is down 2%.
Bitcoin is near session lows at $81,500, down 2% over the past 24 hours.
Among crypto decliners: Coinbase COIN$172.94·Market Closed -5.3%, Robinhood HOOD$101.09·Market Closed -8.9%, Bullish BLSH$30.40·Market Closed -5.1%, Circle CRCL$79.58·Market Closed -6.7%, Galaxy Digital GLXY$17.93·Market Closed -9%, and Strategy MSTR$143.28·Market Closed -6%.
Can’t blame bond yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury is now lower by 3 basis points to 5.18% despite the disappointing inflation report, as money flows out of equities and into fixed income.
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