Bitcoin's recent rally may be losing momentum as traders hesitate near a key resistance level, according to crypto market maker Wintermute.
The firm said bitcoin has failed twice this week to break above $65,000, with profit-taking and weak spot trading volumes suggesting the move lacks conviction.
On-chain data from Glassnode has yet to signal a trend reversal, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in "Extreme Fear" territory. Wintermute said traders are now watching several potential catalysts, including Friday's Clarity Act hearing, the second-quarter options expiry and ongoing geopolitical tensions following a fifth day of strikes involving Iran.
It’s been taken as a shibboleth for months that the capital and investor attention chasing the AI momentum trade was among the reasons for crypto’s continuing bear market.
If so, investors could be forgiven for seeing a reversal in that momentum as meaning the start of the long-awaited bull move in crypto.
Since July 1, the iShares Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) — a very rough proxy for the AI trade — is down 17.6%. Meanwhile, the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is higher by 9.5%, more than 2,700 basis points of outperformance in less than three weeks.
“As of July 13, a total of over 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts across the Korean market triggered margin calls,” according to a Goldman Sachs note. “Approximately 320,000–360,000 accounts were fully liquidated by brokers,” the note continued.
For perspective, said Goldman, South Korea has an adult population of 35.7 million, meaning about 1 in 30 adults there got margin called.
Old-timers in crypto are well aware of the leverage shenanigans in Asian markets and the subsequent pricing volatility that can ensue as the tide goes out.
The Nasdaq is at a session low, down 1.2%, with the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)
Trying to hold on as the AI trade crumbles, bitcoin (BTC) has slipped to $64,100 down 1.3% over the past 24 hours.
T. Rowe Price has launched the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF (TKNZ), which the firm claims is the industry's first actively managed multi-token spot exchange-traded product (ETF). TKNZ invests across a portfolio of crypto assets, including bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), BNB, XRP, solana (SOL) and Hyperliquid (HYPE), with managers actively adjusting holdings based on market conditions and research.
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