Rate hike expectations have been pushed back in the U.S., with the Federal Reserve now expected to keep rates on hold at its July and September meetings at 350-375bps. Following a weaker than expected US jobs report on Thursday, markets now expect the next 25 basis point rate hike in October. The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June 2026, well below forecasts of 110,000. As a result, expectations for easier monetary policy have lifted risk assets and precious metals, with bitcoin rising above $61,000, gold climbing above $4,100 an ounce, and silver trading above $62 an ounce.
While bitcoin’s price has bounced from 21-month lows, it still remains below the pivotal 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a sign that a full-blown bull reversal is not yet confirmed.
As of this writing, the leading cryptocurrency is changing hands near $61,700, marking a notable recovery from the 21-month lows under $58,000 reached earlier this week. The recovery is accompanied by renewed demand for spot ETFs, suggesting potential continuation to the upside.
However, prices still remain below the 200-week SMA, currently at $62,660.
This line has been widely cited as major support since February and served as a strong accumulation zone where bear markets have historically tended to bottom. A decisive breakout above it would confirm the bullish narrative and could draw in more buyers.
Roughly 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss, meaning their holders paid more than today's price, against 9.22 million still in profit, according to Glassnode data. It is the first time loss-making supply has overtaken profitable supply since the current cycle began and reflects how deep the correction from bitcoin's $109,000 January peak has cut.
Historically, these crossovers have landed near periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among newer buyers. They have also marked the point at which coins migrate from weaker hands to stronger ones, since only holders with high conviction tend to sit on losses rather than sell. Long-term holder accumulation and rising wallet-cohort balances across several size brackets have run alongside this latest deterioration in profitability.
Bitcoin traded at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week, still roughly 51% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Ether added 4.2% to $1,702, and Solana led the majors at 18.6% on the week to $80.44, with volume running above $3.6 billion.
Whether the supply crossover marks a bottom depends on what follows. In 2018-19 and 2022, similar readings preceded months of basing before a sustained recovery. The chart does not resolve on its own. ETF flows returning and macro pressure easing are what convert the accumulation signal into a price signal.CORRECT (07:45 UTC): Corrects all-time high in third paragraph.
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