OG Bitcoin holders' spending dropped to a 19-month low, as market cycle indicators point to September as a potential market bottom.
Bitcoin (BTC) holders who acquired their coins more than five years ago have cut spending to a 90-day average of 962 BTC, the lowest level since November 2024, according to CryptoQuant data. The slowdown follows three major spending peaks over the past two years, including a high of 3,860 BTC in May 2024.
At the same time, BTC analysts said that market and profitability indicators are converging in the second half of 2026, putting a new timeline of a potential Bitcoin bottom.
Crypto analyst Darkfost said the current cycle has produced the highest level of spending by long-term Bitcoin holders on record. The cohort tracked in the dataset consists of investors who acquired Bitcoin more than five years ago.
Using spent transaction outputs (STXO), which track Bitcoin that has moved across the network, the analyst identified three major spending waves following strong rallies.
OG Bitcoin Holders selling pressure. Source: CryptoQuant
The 90-day moving average peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025 and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. Individual sessions were far larger, with some days recording output exceeding 10,000, 30,000 and even 142,000 BTC.
That selling pressure has eased sharply. The 90-day average has dropped to 962 BTC, the lowest reading in 19 months. Darkfost said the most expensive coins held by this group were acquired for about $63,200, which is close to current prices. This indicates that many of these holders are choosing not to sell, even though their holdings are trading near their highest cost basis.
Bitcoin Researcher Axel Adler Jr. further noted a split between newer and older BTC investors. The analyst said that Bitcoin's adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) has fallen to -0.14 from near zero a month ago, showing that the average holder has moved back into unrealized losses as BTC traded near $62,500. However, Adler Jr argued,
Adler Jr. added that the key metric has spent nearly half of the past three months below zero, indicating sustained pressure on newer BTC market participants rather than a broad capitulation across long-term holders.
STH vs LTH realized cap analysis. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
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