Transform Ventures founder Michael Terpin says Bitcoin could have another 30% downside from its current price before he is confident the market has reached a bottom.
Bitcoin may have already erased half of its market cap, but veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin says the asset still has further to fall before hitting rock bottom.
“We still have more pain to go,” Terpin tells Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Terpin believes that Bitcoin will ultimately fall “66%” from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. “I think that brings us down into the 40s, and I think that’s about where we’re gonna go,” Terpin says.
To be precise, a 66% drop from the ATH would see Bitcoin changing hands for $43,500, a price the asset has not seen since early February 2024. The 68-year-old investor, often referred to as the “Godfather of Crypto,” has seen Bitcoin plunge enough times to know what a true bottom feels like.
Terpin doesn’t think markets have seen true capitulation yet. “One of the defining hallmarks of the bottom is that it doesn’t pop back,” Terpin says.
Michael Terpin spoke to Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Source: Cointelegraph
Terpin points out that greed is invariably why most traders fail to time market cycles correctly. He points to Bitcoin’s previous cycle top in November 2021, when the asset reached around $69,000 before entering an extended consolidation period. “You had quite a bit of time to get out over $60,000. But then everybody thought it was going to $100,000,” Terpin says, “remember the laser eyes?”
Terpin wasn’t confident back then that Bitcoin would reach $100,000. “I thought there was a possibility it could go to a hundred, but I thought the sweet spot was going to be eighty-five. And it obviously underperformed that because of all the bad macro,” Terpin says.
“We’ve had two cycles in a row now with bad macro. And you would have expected good macro from Trump, but the tariffs, and some of the other things that allowed a lot of manipulation,” Terpin says.
Bitcoin ultimately reached $100,000 in December 2024, just a month after Donald Trump won the US presidential election.
Terpin was an early investor in the crypto industry and is the founder and CEO of blockchain advisory firm Transform Ventures.
Through his company, he worked with several projects during their early development stages that went on to become major names in the industry, including Ethereum, Tether, and WAX. He was also an advisor to Mastercoin, the world’s first initial coin offering (ICO) in 2013. It later became known as Omni Layer.
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