Bitcoin NUPL metric data suggested that BTC price action should make new cycle lows in order to preserve historical patterns.
Bitcoin (BTC) has further to fall for one of its “cleanest cycle clocks” to signal a bear-market bottom, new analysis says.
In research published on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged an incoming profitability floor for the BTC supply.
The onchain metric involved was Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures the portion of the supply being held at a higher or lower price versus that at which it last moved. Its score is currently 0.158, a level last seen in early 2023.
“Smoothed into its 30 and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), it becomes one of the cleanest cycle clocks on-chain,” contributor TheChessOnChain commented.
An accompanying chart shows the 100-day EMA of NUPL slowly trending toward cycle bottom levels below zero.
“Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022),” TheChessOnChain noted.
Bitcoin NUPL data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
At just above $60,000, BTC/USD corresponds to an NUPL 100-day EMA of 0.215, signalling plenty of room left to drop in order to match previous bear-market lows.
CryptoQuant acknowledged that NUPL has put in higher lows throughout Bitcoin’s history, meaning that even a trip below the zero line may not be essential.
“That leaves two paths,” it continued, describing the four extant zero-line crosses as a “pattern, not a law.”
No time frame was given for when the next bottom could occur, with CryptoQuant specifying the zero line as the “level to watch in the coming weeks.”
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