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Bitcoin BTC$63,126.01 fell on Tuesday after chalking out a six-day winning streak, the longest since March. The gains, in any case, looked fragile when viewed through the lens of several indicators.
The most widely followed is the Coinbase Premium, which tracks the difference between bitcoin's price on U.S.-based exchange Coinbase (COIN) and Binance. It has now been negative for fifty straight days, according to data source Coinglass.
That means for close to two months, BTC has been cheaper on Coinbase than Binance, which doesn't operate in the U.S. The discrepancy is an indicator of relatively weak demand in the world's largest economy, a message underscored by the eight straight weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds. Historically, bull runs have featured consistently positive Coinbase Premiums.
Another concerning trend is seen in Japan, where bond yields just can't stop rising. The 10-year rose to a 30-year high early today, lifting borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K. and Germany. A continued upswing, particularly in Treasury yields, could create a headwind for BTC.
While seasonality supports continued recovery, it's the ETF flows that matter the most, according to analysts.
"Until [BlackRock's ETF] IBIT itself flips back to sustained inflows, the structural institutional bid remains unproven," analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex said in a report shared with CoinDesk.
Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said that "the near-term backdrop appears constructive, particularly if spot BTC ETFs continue to see inflows after Friday’s, which marked a welcome shift following more than a week of persistent outflows."
It added that a decisive reclaim of the $64,000 price level this week would provide a further boost to market sentiment, while helping ease concerns about the publicly traded bitcoin-holder Strategy (MSTR). Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
The combined market cap of the top two dollar‑pegged stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has declined to $257 billion from $268 billion over the past two months, even as their dominance, their share of the total crypto market cap, has held largely steady.
This pattern suggests net capital outflows from the crypto market. Investors are selling crypto into stablecoins, and, on balance, those stablecoin positions are being redeemed or rotated out of the onchain ecosystem rather than recycled back into risk assets.
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