Bitcoin is hanging just above $82,500 on Wednesday, the level XS.com’s Simon-Peter Massabni calls its most important support, as stock futures climbed on SpaceX’s blowout results and oil pushed back above $110.
Bitcoin’s fate is tied to tech again. It fell in lockstep with the Nasdaq last week after the hot U.S. inflation report and a selloff in AI and chip stocks, and Massabni, XS.com’s head of business development, said that link is getting stronger.
“In the short term, this development challenges the notion that Bitcoin can consistently serve as an independent safe haven from traditional market volatility,” he said.
A “decisive and sustained break” below $82,500 could hand control to sellers and expose bitcoin to a drop toward $70,000, Massabni said. That’s the downside case laid out by market maker Wintermute, and it would mean a further 15% slide from here.
Tech gave bitcoin some cover on Wednesday.
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% and S&P 500 futures 0.2%. SpaceX jumped 9% before the open after its AI and satellite internet businesses drove earnings well above forecasts, and a report that Anthropic may spend $750 billion on computing power eased worries about the AI spending boom.
Brent topped $110 a barrel on attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, and Treasury yields edged higher. Meta and Tesla report later Wednesday.
A move back above $84,000 would take the $70,000 scenario off the table.
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