Bitcoin BTC$61.047,04 likely has further downside ahead before the current bear market runs its course, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.
Thielen's call centers on the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, which historically acts as a headwind for bitcoin. The outlook has been reinforced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish turn under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are increasingly debating whether the Fed's next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut, a backdrop that has supported the dollar and weighed on assets.
Still, Thielen doesn't expect the downturn to last indefinitely.
Three separate indicators — global liquidity trends, the macro calendar and bitcoin's seasonal patterns — all point to a potential market low between late August and October.
One model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity, which Thielen said correctly identified a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, points to late August as the next key inflection date. Seasonal patterns also suggest September has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, often followed by stronger performance in October.
The timing coincides with two closely watched Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, as well as the U.S. midterm elections and the Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing announcement in early November.
Taken together, Thielen sees bitcoin likely breaking below $60,000 and reaching $55,000 before carving out what he expects to be the low of this cycle.
"The implication is patience now, attention in late August," he wrote.
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
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